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What not to be in!

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What not to be in!

As usual, we will have a comprehensive market report over the weekend…but…with the market hanging tight, lots of stuff working underneath but the areas we have pointed out to you to avoid have not really changed. Here are a few.

We would continue to avoid anything energy (except for refiners). We believe the recent rally/bounce is just that. The same goes for natural gas which seems to be breaking down here.

On top of that, most all commodity areas seem to have also hit the wall after bouncing in their downtrend. Again, no leadership here.

Recently, we told you on Feb 6 that we thought the bond market and many interest rate sensitive areas had topped for now. That stance has not changed as reits and utilities coninue to act poorly here.

We would not continue to avoid most gaming…especially the ones with exposure to Macau.

We will have a few other areas over the weekend as it is easier to isolate weakness when the market is strong.

 


This guy is Secretary of State!

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This guy is Secretary of State!

Secretary of State John Kerry blasted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, claiming his support for the U.S. invasion of Iraq shows his judgment on Iran can’t be trusted. “The prime minister was profoundly forward-leaning and outspoken about the importance of invading Iraq under George W. Bush. We all know what happened with that decision,” Kerry said during a House hearing Wednesday. Of course, Kerry voted for the war in Iraq in 2002 and said he was for the invasion during his presidential campaign against George W. Bush in 2004.


Stunning statistics!

statstics

Stunning statistics!

We are optimists here. Ok…optimists on us…but not on the miscreants in DC. But we do worry as the fed makes the rich richer and leave the middle class dead by their maniacal 0% policy. But the real worry is in some of the statistics that have recently come out…and they are stunning! These numbers must get better!

#1 According to a survey that was just released, 24 percent of all Americans have more credit card debt than emergency savings.

#2 That same survey discovered that an additional 13 percent of all Americans do not have any credit card debt, but they do not have a single penny of emergency savings either.

#3 At this point, approximately 62 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

#4 Adults under the age of 35 in the United States currently have a savings rate of negative 2 percent.

#5 More than half of all students in U.S. public schools come from families that are poor enough to qualify for school lunch subsidies.

#6 A study that was conducted last year found that more than one out of every three adults in the United States has an unpaid debt that is “in collections“.

#7 One survey discovered that 52 percent of all Americans really cannot even financially afford the homes that they are living in right now.

#8 According to research conducted by Atif Mian of Princeton University and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 40 percent of Americans could not come up with $2000 right now without borrowing it.

#9 That same study found that 60 percent of Americans could not say yes to the following question…

“Do you have 3 months emergency funds to cover expenses in case of sickness, job loss, economic downturn?”

#10 A different study discovered that less than one out of every four Americans has enough money stored away to cover six months of expenses.

#11 Today, the average American household is carrying a grand total of 203,163 dollars of debt.

#12 It is estimated that less than 10 percent of the entire U.S. population owns any gold or silver for investment purposes.

#13 48 percent of all Americans do not have any emergency supplies in their homes whatsoever.

#14 53 percent of all Americans do not even have a minimum three day supply of nonperishable food and water in their homes.


Not much to add!

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Not much to add!

There are times where there is just not much to add. This is one of those times. Markets continue to inch higher with decent action underneath. We love quieter markets but this one is a little overdue for a little shake. Doesn’t mean it has to happen but paying attention.

Less is more today. We are sure we will see something emerging or submerging soon but not today.

The Knicks are 10-45….that’s 10-45. Next up, our frustrating Mets…though we really like their pitching staff this year.

 


Major indices continue to break out!

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Major indices continue to break out!

First off, the NASDAQ,NDX and the mid-caps have cleanly broke above range. With Friday’s late move, the S&P and DOW have edged above range and even the small caps have edged above. The only major index to stay in range is the TRANSPORTS as higher oil has impacted a few names. These moves simply bring a good amount of names either breaking out or setting up to break out.We suspect a pullback could happen at any time but the improvement we are seeing should contain any downside.

For us, the most important part of the equation is the great action in growthland as many names have come to the fore in sectors like RETAIL, RESTAURANTS, TECH, MEDICAL and BIOTECH. We absolutely love markets when growth is leading.

Unless recent breakouts fail, we have very little to complain about.

But  to cover the negative side:

Our thoughts on the interest-rate sensitive areas of the markets has not changed as we believe a decent top was put in place on Friday the 6th in bonds, utilities and reits.

We suspected there was a further move to the upside in the commodity complex…namely the down and out energy. This continued throughout the week but now it gets a little trickier as the moves start to get more random…and remains longer term bearish.

But clearly there has been improvement with the only thought here is maybe markets are due for some pulling in. A pullback here would be normal and just fine. And lastly, as we thought, Greece would get an extension of the extension as Europe cannot afford the massive writedowns and capital raise that would occur if Greece went bye bye. Longer term, the massive debt that is building across the globe will eventually come home to roost. It always does. But the massive printing of money and extensions just put off the inevitable.


Be careful who you throw F bombs at!

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Be careful who you throw F bombs at!

SOURCE: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2960791/Commuter-swears-man-way-interview-man-recruiter.html


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Investors Edge – 02/27/2015 Hour 1

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Investors Edge – 02/25/2015 Hour 1

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

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