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$18 Trillion of debt and Bloomberg/Business week says this…

keynes

$18 Trillion of debt and Bloomberg/Business week says this…

I would love to comment on this lunacy but I don’t need to say much. Just repeat after me, $18 trillion of debt…$18 trillion of debt…

SOURCE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-30/businessweek-wants-you-become-keynesian-debt-slave


Random thoughts

gas-prices

Random thoughts

The Fed will start another round of money printing on any real weakness in the markets. Count on it!

Every 10 cent drop in gas prices is $10 billion back into the economy. There is no bad news in this story. Biggest beneficiarys are airlines and truckers.

Much talk about this v-shaped move in the market failing. Not so sure. Easy money works. Still finding many more stocks and groups in the negative column than in the positive column…even with this recent move up.

Gold and silver sink deeper into the abyss. The gold bugs never give up though. Rule #1…never fight the trend and for the better part of 3 years, these areas have been bearish.

This administration remains a jumbled mess. Blasting the head of Israel while currying favor with Iran…different rules for different people on Ebola…a refusal to do what’s logical to protect the folks…a clear disregard on transparency and the treatment of any one who has a differing opinion…and that’s just this week.

Speaking of this administration, they are now looking to lower the standards on getting mortgages with some mortgages with just about no money down. Yup…that’s worked well before. Insanity continues to rule the day in Washington.

In case you forgot, an election will be held next week. My bet is the Republicons take the Senate over the Democraps. Nothing will change though as this Prez will enact whatever he wants. Never knew a prez could have so much power without the house and senate.

Watching my Knicks down 33 points to the Bulls as I write this. Just another crappy year coming up. Chicago is stacked and if they stay healthy, they win the east over the Cavs and lose to the Spurs in the finals. The Spurs are that good.


Haven’t seen this reported much!

opener-01

Haven’t seen this reported much!

SOURCE: http://www.propublica.org/article/the-red-cross-secret-disaster


Wow!

ipo

Wow!

When we thought a near term low was in, we expected a bounce over time into resistance. Instead, it has been a rompin stompin bull move. This rates a big wow. Only in a QE market can you get a long topping process that leads into a market top that leads into a mini-meltdown…a big reversal and a straight up move.

As technicians first, this is outlier stuff. We now have the Fed today. Markets, in the short term, have gone from massively stretched and oversold to the downside…to massively stretched and overbought to the upside. We would love to see some backing and filling to work off some of this heat. But in a QE market, anything is possible.

Most all indices are not just above longer term moving averages but are now above the 50 day. Again…wow! More to come after the Fed announcement.


Wednesday is all that matters!

stock-market-today-results

Wednesday is all that matters!

Would love to give sound advice but the fact is the only thing that matters is the final decision by one person tomorrow. The Fed is in the midst of their 2 day meeting. Expectations are for the final taper in where they stop printing money. But I suspect after 3 Fedheads telegraphed things last week, we suspect there will be some language in where it is stated that “with economies around the globe softening, we stand ready to start another QE program if need be.” Expect the words “data dependent” also to give them room to change their mind.

Biotechs,Utilities, Transports remain the strength. Everything COMMODITY and small caps remain the weakest. Everything else is a tweener. Seems like we are right back to where things were before the recent breakdown.

We continue to believe upside testing can continue but now heading into the meat of resistance.


The Fed and the markets!

terry_keenan

The Fed and the markets!

Terry Keenan was a sweetheart. Terry Keenan was brilliant without having to tell you she was brilliant. I loved appearing on her show and was stunned to hear of her passing at such an early age.  Make every day matter!

Quote of the week that will not be reported by the national media:

“Don’t let anybody tell you that it’s corporations and businesses that create jobs,”

Hillary Clinton

Yes…corporations and businesses do not create jobs but they sure pay you $250,000/speech!

Two weekends ago, we told you that we expected the Fed to start intervening. This was not a reach as every time markets have cratered over the past few years, the Fed’s minions would just open their mouths…and when markets did not listen, they would just create another program of money printing. They did not fail again.

As markets plunged on Wednesday the 15th, with the Dow down another 460, timely yapping started to occur.

First, James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed said that low inflation could lead to a pause in tapering. He didn’t stop there…adding “if the market is right and it’s portending more serious for the U.S. economy, then the committee would have an option of ramping up QE.” The S&P jumped 1% in 2 minutes. But back-up was needed. Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed President conveniently came out and stated that same day that “could easily imagine” not raising rates until 2016.

But they weren’t done. Some dude from the Fed by the last name of Williams also came out and stated more QE may be needed if the economy faltered. All this was not enough. We also got the Bank of England announcing they would keep their money printing at 375 billion Euros. We got the ECB going against everything they promised not to do in announcing their own. We got China announcing more easing.

Markets then had two monstrous reversals leading us to tell you a low was in as the washout sucked out all the sellers. We expected a few weeks of upside testing into the 50 day moving average.. After all, the Fed had an election straight ahead. We were wrong. The upside testing did not take a few weeks. It took a few days. There was no way we would believe after breaking down so badly, markets would recover so much in such a short period of time. Then again, trillions matter.

You may not know this but we hate talking about the Fed. We would much rather talk about the markets. We would much rather talk about the two-way trade between buyers and sellers and their fear and greed at a specific price and at a specific time. But the Fed has made that impossible. They have even admitted that their goal was to rig the bond market in order to get interest rates down in order to get people into assets at whatever price. They have been wildly successful. Wildly successful to the point where even 10% corrections have been a thing of the past.

We would love to tell you what is next. After all, in normal markets, we would now tell you the market would have to go through some backing and filling after this latest Fed-induced, “V-shaped move up. But we have another Fed week where we get to hear what one person wants to do with trillions of dollars. Even if the Fed comes through and tapers to zero, we suspect they will include some language about further programs if the data worsens. After all, the Fed is “data dependent!”

We are finding leadership in Utilities, BIOTECH, RAILS and not much else. The Transports is the strongest index while the small-caps continue to lag badly. The small caps have been lagging for the best part of 10 months. All the divergences we have discussed for months are still out there but it’s Yellen time.

We repeat three things we have been saying for a few years.

THE FED IS NEVER GOING TO RAISE RATES UNLESS THE MARKET FORCES THEM TO.

WE HAD BETTER NOT GET TO THE POINT WHERE MARKETS SHOOT A CERTAIN FINGER AT THE FED AND START IGNORING THEIR MANIACAL MOVES.

THE LONGER THEY SUPPRESS THE NORMAL EBB AND FLOW OF THE MARKET AND ECONOMY, THE GREATER THE YONKING WILL BE!


Radio

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Investors Edge – 10/30/2014 Hour 1

Investors Edge – Hour 1 Listen to todays show by clicking here.

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Investors Edge – 10/29/2014 Hour 1

Investors Edge – Hour 1 Listen to todays show by clicking here.

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Investors Edge – 10/28/2014 Hour 1

Investors Edge – Hour 1 Listen to todays show by clicking here.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

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